College Football Playoff rankings predictions: What 2025's first CFP top 25, bracket could look like

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The first College Football Playoff rankings are only days away. Before the rankings are unveiled by the CFP committee, I predict where each potential top 25 team could land.

The first of six CFP top 25 reveals happens on Tuesday, Nov. 4. Ahead of the announcement, here's a prediction of how the committee could rank its top 25 teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I take a look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams, and more to help rank the teams as I think the CFP committee will do so. You can read the CFP committee's official protocols here.

MORE: See the latest AP Top 25 ahead of the CFP rankings

College Football Playoff rankings predictions: The first top 25 projections | Week 11

These predictions are as of Sunday, Nov. 2.

Ohio State (8-0) — Ohio State will potentially have just one win over a team ranked in the first CFP rankings, Texas, which could lead to some on the committee calling for the Buckeyes to drop from the top spot. However, Ohio State's dominance on the field will pass the eye test for the committee's top spot.

Texas A&M (8-0) — Don't be surprised if the committee ranks Texas A&M at No. 2. The Aggies have a win over Notre Dame in the nonconference slate that could be the difference between them and Indiana in the rankings.

Indiana (9-0) — Indiana will be a top-three team for sure, but where it will rank is up for debate. Unlike the top two teams on this list, the Hoosiers won't have a ranked nonconference win. However, a road win over Oregon will still stand out.

Alabama (7-1) — No one-loss team has a better win than Alabama's win over Georgia on the road. That will earn the Tide the No. 4 ranking.

Georgia (7-1) — Georgia's only loss was to Alabama, and the Bulldogs will have a great win over Ole Miss — a team the committee will have in the top 10. Throw in a win over Tennessee, and you have a resume that the committee can use to justify Georgia's ranking over undefeated teams.

BYU (8-0) — BYU's strength of schedule might be outside of the top 40, but its strength of record after an undefeated start ranks No. 4 in the country. That, plus a quality win over Utah, will help the committee validate its ranking of the Cougars at six.

Ole Miss (8-1) — Alabama beat Georgia, and Georgia beat Ole Miss. The ordering of these teams will be simple for the committee. Ole Miss' road win over Oklahoma is impressive, but its strength of schedule ranks just 24th. Alabama and Georgia rank inside the top 10, which is why there's a gap between the Rebels and the other SEC one-loss team.

Texas Tech (8-1) — Texas Tech is 8-1 with a resume-boosting win over Utah. That win will have the Red Raiders in position for a first-round home game in the committee's first rankings.

Oregon (7-1) — Oregon's only loss came to a top-three-ranked Indiana team, but that loss was at home. With a road win over Penn State losing its luster this season, meaning the Ducks have zero quality wins. The committee sees this and ranks Oregon as the lowest one-loss team in the top 10.

Texas (7-2) — Unlike the AP Poll voters, the committee will hold more weight in Texas' head-to-head win over Oklahoma than it will in a loss to Florida. Texas also picked up another solid win over Vanderbilt, which will be all the committee needs to have the Longhorns as the highest-ranked two-loss team.

Oklahoma (7-2) — Oklahoma ranks behind Texas because of head-to-head, but a win over Tennessee keeps the Sooners in the top 12.

Notre Dame (6-2) — Notre Dame has won six straight games, but a season-opening loss to Miami doesn't look as good now that the Hurricanes have two losses. Since then, the Fighting Irish have picked up a ranked win over USC, but otherwise, there's a lack of notable wins. Yet, a win over a common opponent, NC State, will have the committee rank Notre Dame above Virginia.

Virginia (8-1) — Virginia's only loss is to NC State in an odd nonconference matchup. While NC State does have a winning record at 5-4, the loss still stands out as a borderline bad loss.

Louisville (7-1) — Louisville's only loss came to the Virginia team ranked directly above it in the rankings, and the Cardinals have a quality win over Miami, which still should be ranked after suffering a second loss. That's a resume that the committee likes enough to rank No. 14.

Vanderbilt (7-2) — Vanderbilt will have a current-ranked win over Missouri on its resume, with its two losses coming to top-10 teams in the committee's eyes. That'll see the Commodores open the CFP rankings at No. 15.

Miami (6-2) — Miami has a win over Notre Dame. Even though the Hurricanes have lost two of their last three games, the CFP committee will find that win hard to ignore, keeping the downward-spiraling Hurricanes in the top 20.

Utah (7-2) — Utah has two losses, but both were to teams in the top 10. What gets Utah ranked over a one-loss team like Georgia Tech is a recent win over Cincinnati.

Georgia Tech (8-1) — Georgia Tech has just the 84th-best strength of schedule in the country. That means the committee will rank the Yellow Jackets behind two-loss teams, even with just one loss.

Southern California (6-2) — Southern California will slot in at No. 19 since it will be one of the few remaining ranked teams with a win over another currently ranked opponent. The Trojans beat Michigan by 18 points.

Michigan (7-2) — Michigan will rank behind USC, a team it lost to head-to-head. A win over Washington helps launch the Wolverines into the top 20.

Missouri (6-2) — Missouri sits just outside of the top 20 with just two losses on the year to a pair of teams ranked in the top 15.

Washington (6-2) — Washington's only losses have come against two ranked teams, Ohio State and Michigan. While the Huskies don't have any wins over teams the committee will rank, Illinois was ranked in the AP Poll when Washington beat them.

Tennessee (6-3) — Tennessee will be the lone three-loss team in the CFP rankings, with losses to Georgia, Alabama and Oklahoma. Two of those losses game by one possession, which will help the Vols pass the eye-test of the committee.

Cincinnati (7-2) — Even after a blowout loss to Utah, Cincinnati will hang on to a spot in the CFP rankings with just two losses. Before picking up loss No. 2, the Bearcats won seven straight games.

Memphis (8-1) — Memphis has just one loss, but an American Conference team hasn't opened ranked higher than No. 24 in the last two years. I don't see that changing for the committee this year, as the Tigers don't have a standout nonconference win.

CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule

What the bracket could look like

First Teams Out: No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 12 Notre Dame, No. 14 Louisville, No. 15 Vanderbilt

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Notable College Football Playoff rankings questions

How does the committee view the top three?

Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M rank 1-3, respectively, in the latest AP Poll. Will the committee view the trio of undefeated teams the same way? There are a lot of factors that will be considered, and numerous data points can be used to push either team as the No. 1 team in the country.

UNDEFEATED TRACKER: Here's a look at all of the undefeated FBS teams

Where will BYU rank?

BYU is undefeated, but it would surprise no one if the committee left the Cougars out of the top four. BYU will be a top-10 team, but where in the top 10 will give a better outlook on how this year's committee is evaluating teams.

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Is Notre Dame in the playoff picture?

How much help will Notre Dame need to get into the playoffs? The Fighting Irish already have two losses, so they could be right on the bubble when the committee gets into the room for the first time. The committee could also view Notre Dame's two losses to Miami and Texas A&M as quality losses and rank the Fighting Irish in the top 10. It'll be a major storyline, that's for sure.

How high does Memphis rank in the initial rankings?

Boise State opened 2024 at No. 12 out of the Mountain West, but the American conference hasn't had a team rank higher than No. 24 in the CFP committee's first rankings in either of the last two years.

At 8-1, Memphis looks like the best team outside of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 or SEC, meaning it will be projected as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. However, James Madison out of the Sun Belt and San Diego State out of the Mountain West are also one-loss teams. The first rankings will show if there is a large gap Memphis has created when it comes to an automatic playoff bid.

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