Australia's T20 World Cup progress scenarios explained

Australia's defeat to Zimbabwe has complicated matters for their progression to the Super Eight stage of the T20 World Cup.

Can Australia still progress? Yes, absolutely. But it is not exactly straightforward now. And they could also be staring down the barrel of an early exit. Or, it could all come down to the net run rate of the teams in Group B.

So, what are the options? Let's break it down:

Remaining matches

Ireland v Oman, today, 4:30pm AEDT

Sri Lanka v Australia, Feb 16 (12:30am AEDT Feb 17)

Ireland v Zimbabwe, Feb 17, 8:30pm AEDT

Sri Lanka v Zimbabwe, Feb 19, 8:30pm AEDT

Australia v Oman, Feb 20 (12:30am AEDT Feb 21)

The Group B table as it stands

The Best Case Scenario

There is no longer any simple 'just win and don't worry about the rest' path through the Group Stage for Australia now. Of course, winning both remaining matches, against Sri Lanka and Oman, will give the side the best chance for progression, but their most straightforward path through still requires a little help from other results to remove any threat of a potentially pesky tiebreaker trip-up.

The best way for that to happen is one of Zimbabwe or Sri Lanka to lose both their remaining matches. On the assumption Australia will win both remaining matches, starting Sri Lanka, then the Aussies will want Ireland to beat Zimbabwe.

If that happens, then Sri Lanka v Zimbabwe would effectively become an elimination match to determine which team would go through with Australia on six points, no tiebreakers required.

Results

Ireland beat Oman

Australia beat Sri Lanka

Ireland beat Zimbabwe

Sri Lanka beat Zimbabwe

Australia beat Oman

Group B table in this scenario

If Zimbabwe won their match against Sri Lanka, then they would be the team joining Australia on the above table. The problem for the Aussies is, on form, Zimbabwe would be favoured to beat Ireland, which leads us into the realm of tiebreakers.

Scenario 2: Aussies find form

Let's look at what happens if Australia win both their remaining matches, against Sri Lanka and Oman, but Zimbabwe are too strong for Ireland, but not strong enough to beat Sri Lanka. That should still see the Aussies through with no worries, right?

Well, unfortunately it's not quite so straightforward.

Results

Ireland beat Oman

Australia beat Sri Lanka

Zimbabwe beat Ireland

Sri Lanka beat Zimbabwe

Australia beat Oman

Group B table in this scenario

If – and it's always a big if, especially in T20 cricket – but if we get these results to play out then there would be a three-way tie at the top of Group B between Australia, Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe.

Under the playing conditions for this T20 World Cup, net run rate is the tiebreaker, and the two teams with the highest NRR would progress to the Super Eights.

If somehow the NRR was tied, then the head-to-head results matter. In this scenario, Australia would have the head-to-head over Sri Lanka, but not Zimbabwe.

Advantage Australia: By playing last, and with their final match against theoretically the weakest opponent in Oman, if results do play out this way then Australia will have the advantage of knowing exactly what the NRR they would need reach would be about 24 hours before the game starts.

Scenario 3: The early exit

Could Australia exit the World Cup at the group stage, as they did at the 2009 event? Yes, they can.

Results

Ireland beat Oman

Sri Lanka beat Australia

Zimbabwe beat Ireland

And we can stop there, because at this point, Australia would be eliminated from contention. I wouldn't matter how much Australia can beat Oman by, or who wins the match between Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe, because both Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe would already have six points and Australia could reach a maximum of only four.

The Group B table in this scenario

Such a scenario would mean, due to the way the ICC pre-seeded this tournament, that regardless of who wins the match between Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe, the Chevrons would take the X2 seed in Super Eight Group 1 alongside India, West Indies and South Africa, who all look to have qualification assured.

Scenario 4: relying on others

If Australia were to lose a second group stage game and go down to co-hosts Sri Lanka in Kandy overnight on Monday, all is not lost, but they would now need some favourable results to go there way. Let's break it down

Results

Ireland beat Oman

Sri Lanka beat Australia

Ireland beat Zimbabwe

Sri Lanka beat Zimbabwe

Australia beat Oman

To simplify, let's explain it this way:

IF Australia lose to Sri Lanka, for Australia to still reach the Super Eight stage

THEN Zimbabwe MUST lose to both Ireland (but not by too much) and Sri Lanka (heavily),

and THEN Australia MUST have a superior net run rate to both Zimbabwe and Ireland

Simple, right?

The Group B table in this scenario

So today's Ireland v Oman clash does indeed carry some importance. Australia will of course be keen to keep their fate in their own hands, find some form and quickly get back to winning ways.

But they might also just be keeping an eye on how Ireland are going today, hoping they have good form for their coming match against Zimbabwe, but not so trounce Oman by so much that it lefts their NRR into threatening areas.

So what actually is Net Run Rate?

The ICC uses a lot of words to define this, but essentially, it's the difference between the average runs scored and the average runs conceded, per over.

So if we take Australia's runs scored so far in this tournament of 328 (182 v Ireland and 146 v Zim) averaged out over 40 overs gives us 8.2 per over.

Then we add up the runs scored against Australia: 115 by Ireland and 169 by Zimbabwe, and again divide that by 40 overs, that gives us 7.1 per over.

So Net Run Rate is average runs scored per over (8.2), minues average runs conceded per over (7.1) to get Australia's current total of 1.100 (noting the ICC runs this to three decimal places)

Note that Super Overs are not included in NRR calculations, and if a team is bowled out in less than 20 overs, their total is still averaged out over the full 20 overs for the purposes of calculating the NRR.

And it gets even more complicated when Duckworth-Lewis-Stern calculations come into effect.

2026 ICC Men's T20 World Cup

Australia squad: Mitch Marsh (c), Xavier Bartlett, Cooper Connolly, Tim David, Ben Dwarshuis, Cameron Green, Nathan Ellis, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Matthew Kuhnemann, Glenn Maxwell, Matthew Renshaw, Marcus Stoinis, Adam Zampa. Travelling reserve: Sean Abbott, Steve Smith

Australia's Group Stage fixtures

February 11: beat Ireland by 67 runs

February 13: lost to Zimbabwe by 23 runs

February 16: v Sri Lanka, Pallekele International Stadium, Kandy (Feb 17, 12:30am AEDT)

February 20: v Oman, Pallekele International Stadium, Kandy (Feb 21, 12:30am AEDT)

Australia's Super Eight fixtures

(Assuming all seeded teams qualify)

February 23: Australia (X2) v West Indies (X3), Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai (Feb 24, 12:30am AEDT)

February 26: India (X1) v Australia (X2), MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai (Feb 27, 12:30am AEDT)

March 1: Australia (X2) v South Africa (X4), Arun Jaitley Stadium, Delhi, 8:30pm AEDT

Click here for the full tournament schedule

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