Set piece, in air, on gainline - this is where Wales will try to stop England

Of course, they will go there to try to win. That will be their mindset and that will be their public message. It has to be, but the truth is that the team and its supporters will settle for some ruffling of the English feathers, a confidence-boosting performance where they throw the kitchen sink at England for 60 minutes, just as they did against New Zealand last autumn.

Wales are a team that is building and they will want to be able to go into the match review on Monday and pick out plenty of nice bits where they really stretched England, whether that is in the aerial game or by moving the ball into the 15-metre channels.

There are three key areas that Wales will have been focusing on this week. The first is the set piece. That has always been a traditional area of strength for England, but Wales must make sure that they do not concede too many penalties at the scrum and lineout. They will have been working hard on their maul defence, because if England win seven or eight penalties from scrums and lineouts, then that could be seven or eight entries into Wales’ half or even their 22.

The second one is the aerial game. I see that Steve Borthwick, the England head coach, has been saying that Wales will kick a lot and I think he is right, because Wales are realising they need to be a bit more pragmatic at times. Yes, they have a coaching staff that want to attack — and we must remember that they scored four tries against New Zealand, only the second time a Wales team has ever done that since the 2003 World Cup match — but it is a question of balance and I do think they are beginning to understand that a little more. It is not just about the back three practising taking high balls, it is also about the forwards putting pressure on Alex Mitchell, the England scrum half — being very vocal in the guard area around rucks and constantly harrying him.

The third is the battle on the gainline. Can Wales halt England’s momentum with their bevy of powerful ball-carriers? This is Wales’ biggest challenge and an area where I am particularly worried for them.

If England carry the ball 150 to 200 times, that’s 150 to 200 collisions that have to be dominant or at least neutral from a Welsh perspective. If the majority of them are negative collisions for Wales, it is going to be so difficult. With England playing with quick speed of ball, and the confidence that they have got, it will be so tricky for Wales, because in addition I do not see enough of their players who are really strong over the ball. I always think you need four of those players in your pack and, to be honest, Wales are quite far off that number at the moment.

There was a time when you could criticise England for their conversion rate in oppositions 22s, but not any more. They are so accurate now, and they have got proper X-factor players who can finish.

Wales must adopt the three-phase mentality in defence, stopping England in those first three phases so that they are forced to kick. That was the biggest problem when they lost 73-0 to South Africa in November, that they could not achieve any collision dominance. But they were missing key players then. That said, the likes of Dewi Lake, Rhys Carré (or Nicky Smith), Dafydd Jenkins and Aaron Wainwright, who are Wales’ most physical players, really must step up when England’s forwards are carrying off nine and ten.

I really like the selection of Louis Rees-Zammit at full back. He is a different player from when he first went to American football. It is not just about his pace now. He has put on 5-6kg of muscle, which is a lot for any athlete, and he is much more dominant in contact.

Wales will probably expect to see 30-plus kicks from England. Say half of those go to Rees-Zammit. Or even if they don’t, it goes to a wing who can then play in Rees-Zammit, that could give him ten to 15 counterattack opportunities. That is exciting.

I used to think there were not enough athletes playing for Wales. They have some serious athletes now and I think they can cause any team problems. The pressure is off them on Saturday. I genuinely think there will be moments in the game where people go, “Oh, Wales are looking quite sharp”.

I don’t for a second think they will be able to sustain it for the full 80 minutes, but I do think they will be a lot better than some England fans might assume. Sadly, though, I still think it’s going to be a comprehensive England win.

Click here to read article