Ranking 136 college football teams after Week 10: The ACC contender you shouldn’t overlook

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In a college football season defined by chaos, I have no clue what the College Football Playoff selection committee will do with its first set of rankings on Tuesday.

The 12-team Playoff has greatly expanded the pool of teams with a chance and made the committee’s job much harder than in the four-team era, when it was generally pretty simple (save for a couple of controversial calls).

But there’s one team I believe is getting overlooked this season and might be a surprise placement by the committee. That’s Louisville, up to No. 10 in this week’s Athletic 136.

The Cardinals are now 7-1, with wins at 6-2 Miami and at 7-2 Pitt, and they’re the only team to beat 7-1 James Madison. That’s a solid collection of wins. Their only loss came to Virginia in overtime, a game in which Louisville dominated in the box score but allowed two defensive touchdowns.

Louisville didn’t spend much time the national radar until that win at Miami, when they jumped out to a 14-0 lead and picked off Miami quarterback Carson Beck four times. But their overall resume is more than worthy of top-10 consideration.

The biggest question we have about the committee is how they’ll use their new strength-of-schedule and strength-of-record metrics. We don’t know how the official version will be calculated, and we’ve seen how different calculations can rank schedules differently. How many of these changes will benefit the SEC, the league that complained about last year’s selections and spurred this change?

This year, the SEC is a deep conference in which anyone can beat almost anyone else, it seems. But so is the ACC, and Louisville deserves a strong look from everyone.

Here is this week’s Athletic 136.

Not much else changes in the top 10, as Texas Tech, BYU and Oregon all slide up thanks to losses elsewhere. Indiana and Ohio State remain in the same positions they have been for weeks because Indiana has the best win between them, over Oregon. And according to The Athletic's projections model, Indiana has played the stronger schedule of the two so far (45th out of 136 FBS teams through Week 10; Ohio State's ranks 64th). The Buckeyes and Hoosiers appear to be on a path to meeting in Indianapolis for a conference championship, so it should sort itself out anyway. And if Ohio State again can’t beat Michigan, well, that would sort it, too.

As I mentioned last week, Oregon doesn’t have a good win, so I’m not putting the Ducks above the teams ahead of them yet. But their trip to Iowa this week will be a good test.

This gets really hard as we get into the two-loss teams. Miami only falls to No. 11 after an overtime loss to SMU, because I still have the Canes in the same tier as Notre Dame, which Miami beat in Week 1. Something I keep thinking about is how Notre Dame ultimately benefited by taking its two losses earlier in the season. The Irish had a lot of time to make up the ground against inferior opponents, while other teams finding their second losses now seem to have been penalized more harshly.

I want to take the whole season into account, and while you might believe Notre Dame would win if it played Miami again, I have to go with the actual result we got, for now. Both have two one-score losses and one really good win. Miami has worse losses but the head-to-head win. They both still play Pitt, as well, which could shake things up, too.

The same head-to-head value is why Texas catapults up to No. 13 after beating top-10 Vanderbilt. I don’t feel great about this either, but the Longhorns have that win against Oklahoma, and those two teams are in the same range. Texas may have barely escaped Kentucky and Mississippi State in overtime, but they’re 7-2 with two good wins and one seven-point loss at Ohio State. The good news is Texas still has to play Georgia and Texas A&M, so we’ll see whether they ultimately get the wins to stay in this range or lose and fall back. It’ll sort itself out.

So then, why is Virginia back at No. 15 and not ahead of Louisville? The Cavaliers have just played too many close games against bad teams, beating Washington State by two on a late safety and UNC by one point and a foot of distance on a failed two-point conversion. They were also in a one-score game against Cal last weekend until a pick six with 34 seconds left. Virginia’s last five wins have come by a total of 24 points. Is this me being inconsistent? Maybe. The Cavaliers are alone in first place in the ACC, after all, and control their destiny. If they keep winning, they’ll move up.

Elsewhere, Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech drop down for their losses to Texas and NC State, respectively. Utah climbs for its 45-14 win against Cincinnati. Pitt reaches the top 25, now winners of five straight with Mason Heintschel at quarterback. He’s been a revelation and could create more CFP chaos.

Tennessee drops out of the top 25 with its third loss of the season, and Houston falls out as well for its loss to West Virginia. North Texas climbs for its 31-17 win against previously undefeated Navy.

SMU slides up after its overtime win against Miami but remains behind TCU because of its head-to-head loss, and the Frogs have their own loss to Arizona State. Tulane falls after its blowout loss at UTSA, but the Green Wave remain ahead of Duke because of their matchup earlier in the year.

San Diego State and James Madison are the Group of 5’s best Playoff hopes outside the American Conference. SDSU has won its four Mountain West games by an average of more than 23 points, though their lone loss to Washington State took a hit. James Madison ran past Texas State 52-20, and the Dukes’ only loss was to Louisville.

Florida State moves up for its 42-7 romp of Wake Forest, while NC State leaps into the top 50 for its win against Georgia Tech.

A ton of teams in this range lost over the weekend, limiting major movement. Auburn drops for its 10-3 loss to Kentucky, which resulted in the firing of head coach Hugh Freeze. Kentucky also climbed a few spots up to No. 61.

Fresno State jumps up to No. 56 after a stunning 30-7 win at Boise State. East Carolina is up to No. 62 for a dominant win against Temple. Washington State drops to No. 64 after a loss to Oregon State. New Mexico is bowl-eligible in coach Jason Eck’s first season and up to No. 65, in part because the Lobos have a win over UCLA, which has beaten Maryland and Penn State.

Colorado has been outscored 105-24 in its last two games, but its win against Iowa State is keeping Deion Sanders’ Buffs from falling further.

UConn is bowl-eligible for the third time in four years under Jim Mora, now up to No. 76. UTSA climbs for its 48-26 demolition of Tulane, but the Roadrunners stay behind Temple because of their head-to-head loss. Kennesaw State is up to No. 80, its highest spot ever in these ratings, and is bowl-eligible for the first time after beating UTEP.

North Carolina is clearly improving under Bill Belichick and beat Syracuse 27-10 to get up to No. 84, but the Tar Heels remain behind UCF for now due to the Knights' blowout head-to-head win earlier this season. Arkansas State has four consecutive wins, the latest one over Troy.

Coastal Carolina moves up for its 44-27 win against Marshall, and Missouri State ascends for beating Florida International, the Bears’ third straight win. Texas State drops for its blowout loss to James Madison.

Buffalo, coming off a loss to Akron and a narrow win against UMass, bounced back with a win over Bowling Green to move up. San Jose State jumps up for its win against Hawaii.

No changes in the bottom 12, as everyone either lost or was idle. Sam Houston’s 55-14 loss to Louisiana Tech was a strong data point to move the Bearkats down to No. 136. Coincidentally, Sam Houston has the worst scoring defense in the country and the 129th-ranked offense, while UMass has the worst scoring offense and the 129th-ranked defense. The battle for the bottom remains close.

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